Customer Concentration:
Good or Bad?
The conversation between buyer and seller illustrated in the cartoon
is an example from real life and depicts the differing perspectives
buyers and sellers often have when a business has a high level of
customer concentration. A buyer will normally view customer concentration
as a weakness and a risk that needs to be discounted when coming up
with a price. A seller will see the presence of large customers as
a measure of the company's success and strength. In the article below,
we will discuss this subject in more detail.
· Is the glass half-full or half empty?
Customer concentration is a standard subject on every buyer's due
diligence checklist. Typically a buyer will want to know what percent
of sales and profits the top few customers of a business represent,
or some variation on this type of question (under SEC regulations,
public companies normally must disclose if they have any customer
that accounts for more than 10% of total sales). If there is a high
degree of concentration, the buyer will view a deal as more risky,
as illustrated in the
 |
| "We would like to buy
your company, but the high level of customer concentration is
a concern to us". |
"OK. We will cut back
on
sales to our top 3 customers". |
cartoon. Clearly, as illustrated by the seller's reply in the cartoon,
it is better to have some big customers than to not have them at
all or to have them but at a lower sales level. Who would walk away
from customers like this? A company with a top customer at 30% of
total sales is obviously better than a business without this customer
and a top line thus reduced by 30%. However, the question the buyer
has is this: Is it more risky to buy a business where the top customer
is 30% of total sales, or to buy a business, with the same level
of sales, and the top customer at only 10% of the total? To this
the answer must be that customer concentration increases risk. However,
this is not the end of the analysis, but merely the beginning. With
high risk comes the potential for high reward. And so, customer
concentration is neither good nor bad per se. It depends on the
facts of each specific situation. At one extreme, sales to a top
customer may have to be discounted almost entirely because of a
high degree of uncertainty. At the other extreme, sales to a top
customer may be so secure as to be the equivalent of a fixed annuity.
· Questions that typically are asked by buyers when there is
a high level of customer concentration
| 1. |
What is the sales history with the
particular customer? Have they been a top customer a long time,
or just recently? Is there a contract with the customer?
Clearly a long-term customer normally presents much less of
a risk than a customer that only recently began to purchase
in large volumes. And a meaningful contract lessens risk. |
| 2. |
What is the basis of the sale?
Is it price-driven? Does it depend on a personal relationship?
Or is it based on superior service and/or superior technology?
A customer that will switch suppliers for a few cents a pound,
or a customer that only buys from a supplier because of a personal
relationship with the salesperson is obviously more of a risk
than the customer who buys because of unmatched service or technology. |
| 3. |
What are the "switching" costs?
What would it take for the customer to change suppliers?
This can be related to the previous questions. If the product
sold is a commodity chemical and is fungible with competitive
products, it may be virtually cost-free for the customer to
switch suppliers. On the other hand, there are many specialty
chemicals that can not be replaced without an extended period
of testing and trials. |
| 4. |
Is the customer sole sourcing it's
purchases or does it have multiple sources? Related
again to the previous questions, if a customer has multiple
suppliers for its needs for a particular chemical, this makes
for a riskier acquisition compared to the situation where the
customer sole sources its needs for a particular chemical from
the company for sale. |
| 5. |
What percent of the customer's cost
of sales is represented by the cost of the seller's product?
A chemical may represent a small fraction of a customer's costs
or alternatively, a chemical in other circumstances may represent
a large portion of a customer's costs. The higher the percentage
of the customer's costs the higher the risk typically. |
| 6. |
What are the customer's prospects? Is the
seller hitched to a winner or a loser? A company that
is financially strong with good growth prospects is obviously
better to have as a top customer than one that is weak and in
decline. |
· Earnouts/holdbacks may be a solution.
A common way to bridge the gap between how much a seller wants and
what a buyer is willing to pay for a business with a high degree
of customer concentration is the earnout or holdback or some other
type of contingent consideration. In order to lessen the risk to
a buyer, part of the price would be contingent on meeting some kind
of financial goal after the acquisition.
A word about disclosing customer names to a potential buyer
and allowing the potential buyer to talk to or meet with top
customers.
Buyers will always want to know the names of a seller's top
customers. When there is a high level of customer concentration,
buyers may also want to talk to or meet with top customers prior
to closing the acquisition to get some indication of the prospects
of the business going forward. This can be a sensitive subject.
Frequently customer names are not given out to a potential buyer
until a later stage in due diligence, sometimes only after a
binding agreement is reached. The buyer will however normally
condition its agreement to close the deal upon a satisfactory
evaluation of the top customer or customers. Customer visits
are an even more sensitive matter, and again, in some cases,
a buyer will want to talk to or meet with the top customer or
customers before closing the deal. In these types of situations,
such discussions/visits are normally allowed only at the 11th
hour, after the purchase agreement and financing is in place,
and the buyer has completed all other aspects of due diligence
with no other contingencies remaining.
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